Demographer: Ukraine has lost 10 mln people over the war period

Ella Libanova on Ukraine's population losses during the years of war. Photo: Ukrinform

Ukraine’s demographic losses have reached about 10 million people over 11 years of armed conflict, including those killed, dead, forced to emigrate, and children who were never born due to the war. This was stated by Ella Libanova, Director of the M. V. Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, during the VI Re:Open Zakarpattia Forum, Ukrinform reports.

As of mid-2024, the direct demographic losses caused by the war amount to roughly 10 million people. Libanova explained that this figure includes those who died, were killed, emigrated, or were never born. The current population in territories under Ukrainian control stands at about 31.5 million; under pre-war demographic trends, it could have reached 41.5 million.

A significant share of the war-time migrants are young people: of the 4.5 million Ukrainians now abroad, one-third are children and teenagers under 18, while only 6% are over 65. According to Eurostat, there are about 3.5 million Ukrainian women refugees in Europe, 70% of whom hold higher education degrees. The expert stressed that the loss of such intellectual potential poses a serious threat to the country’s development.

Libanova noted that after 2022 she had hoped for 50–60% of refugees to return, but the length and uncertainty of the war have greatly reduced those chances. She explained that both capital and labor migrate where conditions are favorable, so European investments might permanently relocate to other regions. The demographer emphasized that preserving Ukraine’s human potential is an absolute priority, stating that “people, not territory, are the key resource for recovery.”

She also predicted possible community tensions after the war, especially in regions such as Zakarpattia, which has absorbed many relocated businesses and residents from other oblasts.

Earlier, the UOJ reported that Nataliya Vlasenko, adviser to the head of Ukraine’s State Statistics Service, said the country loses around 350,000 people every year.

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