UOC vs. OCU numbers: pollsters count, social media recount

Dumenko at the Lavra. Photo: OCU

An informal poll on Threads asked Ukrainians which jurisdiction’s churches they attend – the UOC or the OCU. The post drew more than a thousand comments. The result: UOC believers outnumbered OCU parishioners by nearly five to one.

Here are several points worth noting.

1️⃣ A thousand responses may not seem like much at first glance. Yet well-known research organizations such as the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and the Razumkov Center typically survey between 1,000 and 2,000 respondents in their polls, including those dealing with religious affiliation. In terms of sample size, then, the Threads poll is quite comparable to surveys conducted by professional polling organizations.

2️⃣ The poll’s author – a user with the handle lisira_aa – is not an Orthodox blogger and does not have a church-oriented audience. The commenters therefore cannot be regarded as an audience predisposed to support the UOC. In addition to UOC and OCU parishioners, the discussion included Greek Catholics, Roman Catholics, Protestants, atheists, and even pagans.

3️⃣ According to all major official surveys dealing with church affiliation, the OCU leads the UOC by a wide margin. The OCU itself readily cites these figures in official statements. Dumenko, for example, cited the latest KIIS survey at the OCU’s “Council of Bishops” as evidence that the OCU has 11 (!) times as many parishioners as the UOC.

The difference is staggering. Official polling suggests that Dumenko’s structure enjoys an overwhelming advantage in the number of parishioners, while social media polls paint a completely different picture. Which should we believe?

Perhaps the answer is to trust what we can see with our own eyes – simply look around. If the polling figures were accurate, OCU churches, including the hundreds taken over from the UOC, would be overflowing with worshippers. Thousands would attend every OCU “service” at the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. OCU cross processions would draw tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people. And monasteries would have lines of people waiting to take monastic vows.

Do we see anything remotely like that?

No.

And that may be the clearest answer to the question of which polls deserve our trust – and which do not.

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