How to view 20th-century elders' prophecies about today’s events in Ukraine
Answer by Archimandrite Markell (Pavuk), lecturer at the Kyiv Theological Academy and Seminary.
Prophecy is not only a prediction of the future, but also a true and discerning understanding of the present. The holy prophets Elijah and Ezekiel, whose memory we recently celebrated, are striking examples of this. They not only spoke – often symbolically – about the coming of the Messiah, Christ, but also boldly denounced the idolatry promoted by the leaders of Israel in their time.
All our Orthodox bishops and priests, following Christ and the ancient prophets, are likewise called to a prophetic ministry. We must learn not only to copy the preaching models of the 20th century – though they are immensely rich and instructive – but also to speak boldly and truthfully about present-day realities. When we preach, we are obliged to call things by their proper names. But this must not come “from the wind of our own minds” (for then it usually becomes false prophecy), but must be based solidly on Holy Scripture and the patristic Tradition of the Church.
The fact that many of the prophecies made by 20th-century elders – who lived not so long ago – are being fulfilled today testifies that the Church was not mistaken in glorifying them as saints. One of the most well-known is the prophecy of Venerable Lavrenty of Chernigov (+1950), who, during the godless Soviet era, foretold that the persecution of the Church would soon end, churches and monasteries would be restored, and domes would once again be gilded. But – he emphasized – this would be short-lived, as new and even more fearsome persecutions would soon begin.
Naturally, many people have wondered: why is this so? Why would the Church enjoy only a brief time of freedom? There are no surviving records of how Venerable Lavrenty answered that question, but one might reasonably assume that he was urging both contemporary and future pastors and believers to focus not merely on external piety – such as the beauty of churches and services – but above all on inner spiritual work: the struggle against passions and lusts, and the pursuit of virtue. Seeing that many Christians were spiritually lazy, he may have spoken of the short duration of the Church’s outward freedom to awaken them.
Other ascetics and elders of the 20th century – though not yet canonized – also foresaw many of the developments we are now witnessing. They did so not by means of political analysis, as secular commentators do, but through deep spiritual discernment and an understanding of human nature’s tendency toward sin. For example, when one holy woman foretold that a well-known hierarch of her time would end his life as a mere “man in trousers,” it was not a mystical revelation but a sober conclusion drawn from his unworthy way of life, which could not possibly lead to a different end.
Therefore, we must treat all prophecies concerning the fate of our homeland or certain prominent individuals with attentiveness, while also rejecting all hysteria and fabricated predictions falsely attributed to particular elders – especially when these so-called prophecies contradict the spirit of Holy Scripture and Church Tradition.
