What should the Church and believers expect after Cross procession-2018?

Metropolitan Onufry at the Cross Procession-2018

The religious procession of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church this year has gathered an unprecedented number of participants – more than 250,000 people. Neither the obstacles put by the authorities and radicals, nor the absolutely unthinkable defamation of the Church in the media, nor the four-year work at all levels to discredit the UOC could prevent this. In this connection, participation in the procession by a quarter of a million Ukrainians is nothing short of a miracle. The situation in which the Ukrainian government placed itself painfully resembles the beginning of the fifties of the last century when, after several decades of struggle against Orthodoxy and religion, more than half of the inhabitants of the Soviet Union called themselves believers. To understand why this happened can be very long, so let's just say the main thing: ideology, no matter how powerful it might be, cannot replace beliefs. Faith always prevails in the struggle with propaganda.

At the same time, a huge state resource, advertising in the media and constant support, rendered at all levels in modern Ukraine to the UOC-KP, could not even gather half of the amount that had passed the streets of Kiev the day before. And even the president's participation did not affect the final outcome. This, of course, is a failure.

Therefore, the question of what happens next, what awaits us is not at all idle. And there are several options for the development of events in this respect.

Variant #1: optimistic

Its essence is simple: after the procession, the Ukrainian authorities finally realized what the Church is like, that people's support is guaranteed in any case, and therefore it is pointless to fight against it. The laws on incitement of interreligious hostility will come into force, and those journalists who will insult or groundlessly blame the Church for any crimes will be held accountable. The seizures of Orthodox churches will stop, and those that have already been illegally seized will be returned to their rightful owners. The authorities completely and irrevocably cease to interfere in the affairs of the Church and deal with the issues of autocephaly, Tomos and "unification" of the Orthodox.

To be honest, it is hard to believe in this scenario, although it is very desirable. Plenty of money and effort on the struggle against the Church have been spent so far for the authorities to retreat under the pressure of obvious facts and the popular majority. Therefore,

Variant #2: pessimistic

Church is a real power. And not only in the spiritual sense but also in the physical sense, too. After all, behind the Church there are millions of ordinary Ukrainians who, even under the most deceptive polls, have more confidence in it than in any other institution in the country. This means that the Church is a threat to those who are at the top of the Ukrainian politics. One needs to fight with any threat. Therefore, the government will strengthen anti-church propaganda. Moreover, a variant of the early USSR is possible – direct and physical repression and destruction of representatives of the Church. In this situation, the UOC is likely to be banned, its most prominent leaders will be either sent out of the country, or sent to concentration camps; neutralization is also possible.

Of course, someone will say that in the modern world such a scenario is impossible, because there is the international community, organizations for protecting human rights, and there are no information borders. It’s true, but let’s recall, by the way, when the Macedonian authorities kept in prison Archbishop of the Serbian Church, John (Vranishkovsky), for several years on fabricated charges. Or another question – did any international community manage to prevent the capture of at least one Orthodox church? That's it.

But, frankly speaking, I personally cannot believe in this development of events. Indeed, persecution, as is known, leads exactly to the opposite result – and the government is aware of this. Therefore,

Variant #3: realistic

What awaits us in this case? I think that the degree of hatred for the Church is unlikely to fall. Moreover, I am sure that it will increase – gradually but steadily. Modern rules of black PR say that it is impossible to fight against the system – it is possible to fight only against specific people. And only completely discrediting the representatives of the system, you can destroy it itself. This means that in the near future we are to expect a surge of dirty materials that will affect the personal life of the clergy. And believe me, expensive apartments and cars are just the tip of the iceberg that awaits us. There can be no doubt that in the pursuit of “bombshell” stories journalists will descend to forgery, violation of laws and just compromise with their conscience, because with them the choice of the end covers the choice of the means.

On the other hand, any alternative opinion, any attempt to justify or explain the situation will be severely suppressed. Media that deal with ecclesiastic issues are likely to be tightly controlled or cease to exist altogether. They will try to turn the UOC into a marginal group, identification with which discredits a person. Work, business and government will be absolutely incompatible with visiting the Lavra (which is the case to some extent even now).

On the part of the radicals and with total inaction of the authorities, attacks on Orthodox churches and priests will be frequented. The goal is to intimidate.

In a word, with a realistic development of events, it will only be harder to live in the Church. Yes, from the outside it may seem that this is bad. But, as schema-hegumen John (Maslov) once said, "persecution is an iron, with the help of which the Lord burns lice out of the chiton of the Church."

How about Tomos?

On the eve of the celebration of the 1030th anniversary of the Baptism of Rus, there was so much talk about getting a tomos on autocephaly of the Church that Tomos became a family member for some Ukrainians. When the holiday passed, but Tomos did not arrive, many were sincerely and genuinely surprised. After all, it would seem it's just a piece of cake to give a piece of paper which, unlike membership in the European Union, is absolutely intangible. Yet it turns out not that simple.

To “issue” such a piece of paper means to start a conflict with most of the Orthodox world, and not just with the "satellites" of Moscow, as Ukrainian "experts" say. This was unequivocally testified at the time of the Cross procession of the UOC, attended by delegations of 12 out of 14 Local Orthodox Churches. To be in confrontation with them, Constantinople needs more valid reasons than the appeal of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, meetings with the president and gifts. It needs nationwide support. And it was the procession that was to become an indicator, a litmus test of whose side the people of Ukraine take. It did show whose. Therefore, now the Ukrainian government will have to act from scratch: once again, it is necessary to persuade the Phanar that the people of Ukraine are craving autocephaly; they will need to somehow explain the failure during the celebration of the 1030th anniversary; again delegations, again letters and appeals. All this will drag on for at least a few more years.

At the same time, Constantinople fully realized once again that Filaret was not going to resign, that the Ukrainian government was putting a stake on him, and that he still had enough strength to stay at the helm for five or seven years (agree, at that age and in such a hot weather to cover two kilometers after two hours of service, and then stand for another two hours on the Vladimir hill is something not even every young man can do).

Consequently, it can already be predicted that Fanar will demand replacement of Filaret, and at this very time, perhaps, will open its representative office in Ukraine to be in sight. Guessing who can become such a substitute is an empty undertaking. There are several candidates, and we do not know all of them. One thing is clear: even having found the one-size-fits-all person, it’s necessary to convince everybody in the need for autocephaly.

Conclusions

One can hardly expect improvement of church-state relations in Ukraine in the coming year. The work to discredit the UOC will only step up, its main focus being shifted to the clergy. For this reason the UOC priests should be especially careful, because no one will abide by any rules.

This year Tomos is unlikely to be granted and all efforts to get it will bump into Greek diplomatic policy, which is inasmuch “neither here nor there” as it is erratic.

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