Why nation-first advocates do not call for peace

Ukraine’s population is declining by nearly one million people a year, and experts are warning of the nation’s demographic extinction. Yet the leaders of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) and the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church (UGCC) continue to call for war and mobilization.

It is no secret that Ukraine’s patriotic church jurisdictions – primarily the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) and the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church (UGCC) – declare that one of their key missions is to care for and support the Ukrainian nation. Moreover, the nation itself is often placed at the very center of the priorities of these denominations.

There are numerous examples of this. They include slogans such as "Ukraine Above All" and "Glory to the Nation – Death to the Enemies," chanted by OCU and UGCC clergy; statements by Serhiy Dumenko that members of the OCU are proud to be Banderites; the display of Ukraine’s national coat of arms on iconostases; "icons" featuring Christ wearing a traditional Ukrainian embroidered shirt (vyshyvanka); and much, much more.

In almost every sermon delivered by the heads and hierarchs of these denominations, the importance of the Ukrainian nation and the need to support its development are emphasized.

In fact, no one hides that in the aforementioned jurisdictions the nation occupies the dominant place.

We will not analyze now whether this is good or bad. The point is different. We propose to examine how far the actual rhetoric of the heads and clergy of the OCU and the UGCC corresponds to that very care for Ukraine, which is supposedly "above all".

Demography: is the catastrophe already here?

52 million at the start of independence – and, by various estimates, between 18 and 25 million today. Over 35 years, the population of Ukraine has shrunk by more than half. In 2019, the Cabinet of Ministers announced that the population of Ukraine (in the government-controlled territories) was 37 million. No one knows the exact figure for the country’s current population. Minister of Social Policy Denys Uliutin estimated it for 2026 at 22–25 million people. Will Lloyd, deputy editor of the British magazine New Statesman, cited a figure of 20 million, drawing on information provided by a senior British official. Economist and analyst Oleksii Kushch currently estimates the country’s population at "close to 20 million." And some experts, citing the number of active mobile operator users, argue that the actual population may be below 18 million. Former Minister of Economy Timofey Milovanov stated that the war could leave Ukraine with a catastrophically small population.

"My pessimistic estimate is this: 10–15 million Ukrainians may remain in Ukraine," Milovanov said.

And Milovanov does not appear to be exaggerating at all. According to the Ministry of Justice, mortality in Ukraine has exceeded the birth rate by almost 4 times.

Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography of Ukraine Oleksandr Hladun claims that the country loses about 1 million 150 thousand people every year. He explains such losses by high mortality and emigration.

The head of the Institute of Demography, Ella Libanova, claims that the population of Ukraine decreased by approximately one million people over 2025.

Head of the Office of Migration Policy Vasyl Voskoboinyk assesses the losses for this period more modestly but only slightly – 800 thousand. What is particularly important, however, is that those who have left the country, and continue to leave, are its future: women of reproductive age and children. The UN says that Ukraine is facing a catastrophic demographic crisis and will soon take first place in the world for the lowest share of young people in its population structure.

Director of the Kyiv Perinatal Center Dmytro Hovseiev stated that in order to simply restore the population to its 2022 level, every woman would have to give birth to eight children.

We all understand that this is impossible. But what needs to be done to at least slow down such a catastrophic decline?

Analyst Oleksii Kushch emphasizes that the only hope is the immediate end of the war.

"The end of the war is the key condition for saving the nation in this case," he says. Libanova warns of the same. "With every month there is more destruction here, and our forced migrants are adapting more and more to their new life abroad," she notes. And these are extremely important words. More than 4.5 years have passed since the beginning of the full-scale war, when over 10 million people left the country. During this time, Ukrainians abroad have managed to learn the language, find jobs, and settle into their new places. And every day they live there makes their return less and less likely. But perhaps the most worrying thing is something else: many of the 1.8 million children who have left the country already consider the country that has taken them in rather than Ukraine to be their homeland.

Kushch, analyzing the figures of the rapid decline in the number of Ukrainian schoolchildren, predicted the death of the nation within two generations, or, in other words, the next 50 years. Former People's Deputy of the 8th convocation and Doctor of Medical Sciences Olha Bohomolets is more optimistic, but only slightly: according to her forecast, Ukrainians will disappear within 6 generations.

Experts differ on the figures and timelines, but only in the details. On the main point, Kushch, Bohomolets, and many others agree: Ukraine’s population is rapidly declining, and the only question is how quickly.

Hence the natural question:

what should be done in such conditions by those for whom serving the Ukrainian nation is the highest goal? Obviously, to do everything to stop its disappearance and try to reverse the process. And there is only one way here – ending the war.

What is the position of the "patriots" on this matter?

Peace is needed, but the war must continue

The first serious talks about the possibility of ending the war in Ukraine appeared after US President Trump came to power and launched his peacemaking initiatives. But they received no support among the "patriotic" denominations.

For example, in December 2025, the head of the UGCC made several statements criticizing Trump. Speaking in Australia, Sviatoslav Shevchuk spoke in favor of continuing hostilities in order to "stop the aggressor". "They tell us: give up territories – and you will get peace," Shevchuk declared, and expressed doubt that the Russian Federation would agree to this. He emphasized that Ukraine is "much more than land resources or mineral deposits, it is a holy place where God is with His people."

The logic is clear: a "holy place" is not surrendered, which means the war must go on.

A couple of weeks later, Shevchuk made another statement on the same subject, calling Trump's peace plan the "so-called" one. The head of the UGCC did not specify why he criticized the diplomatic efforts of the United States of America. At the same time, he expressed the hope "that the powerful of this world would come to understand the pain and suffering of ordinary Ukrainians."

And soon the pain and suffering of ordinary Ukrainians became unbearable, when the shelling and destruction were compounded by severe frosts. In the capital, tens of thousands of people lived through the winter of 2025/2026 without heating, sewage, or electricity. Meanwhile, Shevchuk painted for Europeans a picture of the fortitude of Kyivans, who are ready to endure for as long as necessary.

Speaking in Rome, he said that Ukrainians, "while in heating points, did not weep in despair, but sang and danced." "This image of people who are freezing, yet sing and dance to music, has already become historic and has astonished the whole world," Shevchuk assured the Europeans.

And while on a visit to Brazil, he said that, despite the severe trials, his country "is alive, stands, fights, and prays," and that those in the world who do not believe in Ukraine's victory "must repent."

Shevchuk's message to the world is simple: Ukrainians are ready to suffer and fight for as long as required; all that is needed is to give money.

And on the eve of the winter of 2026/2027, he again says that one must "once again find the strength within ourselves" to resist, and urges people not to believe those who warn of "apocalyptic scenarios." Meanwhile, neither Shevchuk himself nor his associates lack anything in Kyiv. The UGCC cathedral has everything necessary: solar panels, generators, a well with water, and a stock of provisions. And in the event of a blackout, one can always leave for abroad, where most of the UGCC's structures are located.

We hide our own from mobilization, and let others fight

One of the major problems in Ukraine is forced mobilization, which the public has long dubbed “busification” because of the use of minibuses by military recruitment officers.

There is little need to explain how Ukrainians feel about the Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Centres (TRCs): hundreds of controversial videos have already appeared online showing uniformed personnel effectively abducting men from streets, public transport, and shops. Public attitudes toward recruitment officers are overwhelmingly negative. Nevertheless, OCU and UGCC representatives and some Protestant denominations strongly support the actions of the TRCs.

OCU "Metropolitan" Mikhail Zinkevich declares that everyone must be at the front: "Today everyone, without exception, must go into the army," he said. "And once there, do something in accordance with your state of health, family situation, and so on. But absolutely everyone among us must be a serviceman. The war will not end."

He is echoed by the OCU "metropolitan" with a Russian passport, Clement Kushch, who harshly criticizes those who resist mobilization and do not want to go to the front.

"Those who speak out against mobilization, who stage these shows at the TRC, look: the war will come. If you do not want to defend, you will be destroyed," Kushch declared.

Even further went the most popular blogger in the OCU, Oleksii Filiuk, who assured his viewers that there is nothing wrong with people being abducted by military enlistment officers. "Well, what sin is there in that? The man is working, carrying out his official duties," Filiuk said. At the same time, the OCU cleric condemned draft evaders: "Defending the Fatherland is your duty. To hide is abnormal."

But here is what is interesting. Filiuk deleted his video in support of the TCC literally a few hours after publishing it. The reason is simple: a flood of indignant and negative comments.

The UGCC is not lagging behind the OCU. One of its spokesmen, Justin Boyko, claims that the hatred of the TRC on social media is being artificially incited, and that the killing of a military enlistment office employee is not merely a sin, but a "particularly grave" sin. The head of the Uniates, Sviatoslav Shevchuk, speaks even more bluntly: "We support the Armed Forces of Ukraine and constantly explain that evading mobilization is a failure to fulfill one's civic duty."

According to Shevchuk, the UGCC would like the TRC not to have to use force against Ukrainians but for draftee to go to the front voluntarily.

"We want our men and women, without pressure but by the call of their own conscience, love for the Homeland, and the duty to defend it, to join the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," he added.

However, earlier the same Shevchuk, during a live broadcast, accidentally admitted that he hides Ukrainians from mobilization, but only those who are useful to him. He complained to Oleksandr Drabinko about a shortage of craftsmen to complete an iconostasis and said: "We even hide a few of them here with us. They live here and are fed here, all of them."

However, in the OCU and the UGCC, only laborers need to be hidden; their clergy are protected by exemption and calmly receive deferments from mobilization. Meanwhile, UOC priests have been denied exemption from mobilization. As a result, there are reports almost daily of TCC personnel abducting clergy members – on the streets, near churches, and even during religious processions. The picture that emerges speaks volumes. Those who most loudly insist that “everyone, without exception, should go to the front” and condemn “draft dodgers” are not themselves at risk. These "patriots" are willing to fight but at someone else’s expense.

Migrants instead of Ukrainians?

Even the most die-hard optimists now recognize that Ukraine will inevitably have to bring in migrants because of its catastrophic population decline. Ukraine's Business Ombudsman Roman Vashchuk has stated that every Ukrainian who dies or leaves the country frees up a place for a migrant. The already mentioned Timofei Milovanov, now president of the Kyiv School of Economics, declares that for the economy to function, the country will need to attract about 10 million labor migrants. Vasyl Voskoboinyk cites somewhat lower figures, though the difference is not substantial. According to him, Ukraine will need up to 8.7 million additional workers over the next 10 years.

Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Office of the President, has announced plans to simplify entry procedures for migrant workers from Africa.

Voskoboinyk predicts that the ethnic composition of Ukraine's population will inevitably change as a result of the demographic crisis and the mass recruitment of labor migrants. According to him, Ukrainians will simply turn into mestizos.

Against this background, the statement by UGCC head Sviatoslav Shevchuk in support of bringing in foreigners sounds particularly telling.

Commenting on the recruitment of migrants to address the demographic catastrophe, Shevchuk noted that Ukraine is building a new type of political nation, not "for ethnic Ukrainians only," but one that welcomes everyone "who is ready to help build a free, united, and independent Ukrainian state."

But there is a problem. Germans, French, or representatives of other European Christian countries will not come to wartime or postwar Ukraine. Sociologists and demographers expect migrants from the poorest and least developed states, predominantly Muslim ones. For example, Ella Libanova hopes that most of the newcomers will be from Bangladesh. "I really do not want it to be Iran, Iraq, or Syria," Libanova says, but there is no certainty that her hopes will come true.

The experience of a number of EU countries proves that Muslim migrants are very reluctant to integrate into the new society and culture. In most cases the opposite happens – they demand that their new homeland respect their mentality, traditions, and religion. And it is unlikely that things will be different in Ukraine.

Conclusions

1. Ukraine has long existed on the brink of a demographic catastrophe. We are among the three countries with the lowest birth rates in the world. Every new day of war brings new casualties, increases the number of emigrants, and strengthens the resolve of those who have already left not to return home.
2. The Ukrainian nation, whose service politicians and religious figures so love to talk about, is in a very grave situation. The population is shrinking at such a pace that experts argue only about when Ukrainians will disappear completely. And the only «medicine» we are offered is the mass importation of migrants, up to 10 million people. If the indigenous population continues to decline by 800,000 to one million a year, then soon Ukrainians and newcomers may be roughly equal in number. Whether anything will remain of the nation besides the name is a big question.
3. The stance taken by the leaders of the "patriotic" denominations in support of the war and mobilization is nothing short of astonishing. And the issue is not even Christianity’s attitude toward war. The problem is that the leadership of the OCU and the UGCC is openly ignoring the mortal danger facing the Ukrainian nation, which they speak so grandly of serving.

Yes, life is still bustling in the big cities, but with each passing month it becomes less and less intense. People are disappearing, while cemeteries are growing. The enemy is destroying infrastructure, homes, transport, and enterprises. Everything that our fathers built over decades is being systematically destroyed.

Astronomers say that many of the stars whose light we see in the night sky have long been dead. Only their light still reaches us.

Our Ukrainian "star" is still alive. But if we do not all call for peace together, only light will remain of us.