Why the idea of a "national Church" is doomed
According to the most optimistic estimates, the population of Ukraine is now no more than 19 million. The figure is shocking, especially when you remember that at the beginning of independence, 52 million people lived in the country.
While Serhiy Dumenko pompously delivered another set of meaningless statements about how Patriarch Bartholomew "restored the historical ecclesiastical dignity" of Ukrainians after "centuries of oppression", the ombudsman announced that since the beginning of the invasion, 11 million people have left Ukraine.
How is all this connected? Let's think about it.
In 2019, the Cabinet of Ministers announced that the population of Ukraine (in the state-controlled territories) was 37.289 million people. About 5 million lived in the territories occupied since the start of the full-scale invasion. Today, the death rate in Ukraine exceeds the birth rate by almost three times, and the natural population decline amounts to about 350,000 people per year. If we add up the total losses – emigration, occupied territories, and natural mortality – then since 2019 we have lost approximately 18 million people. This does not include combat losses, which, judging by Ukrainian cemeteries, are also significant.
As a result, according to the most optimistic estimates, no more than 19 million citizens remain in Ukraine. The figure is shocking, especially when one recalls that at the beginning of independence, 52 million people lived in the country.
And these are just interim figures: the war continues, people continue to die and leave. Yes, after the war, some Ukrainians will return. But it is unlikely that there will be many of them.
Not long ago, former Minister of Economy Milovanov stated that the country might be left with 10 million, and the authorities will have to bring in as many from other countries. There will simply be no other way: someone will have to fill the vacant jobs. It is clear that they will not be brought from prosperous Christian countries; they will likely be representatives of other religions.
These people will definitely not be interested in the "ecclesiastical dignity" of the OCU. Nor will they be interested in the overall strategy of the "national Ukrainian church" with "Father Bandera", tridents, and red-black flags. The OCU will die out on its own because its "values" will not be needed by anyone. This is not malevolence; it is a matter of time and historical logic.
And what about the UOC? It is part of the Church of Christ on our land, which over the centuries has survived heresies, schisms, the Mongol invasion, and Soviet repressions. It endured not because it served someone's national or political interests, but because it was guided by the Holy Spirit. It will survive new trials as well.
But we need to prepare for them now.
