USA, Phanar, and Ukraine: What awaits UOC if Trump becomes president
According to many experts, Donald Trump will become the next president of the United States. What can UOC believers expect if he comes to power again?
After the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, political experts worldwide unanimously began to speak of him as the most likely winner of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. On July 15, 2024, this notion was reaffirmed by the head of the Greek Archdiocese of Phanar in the USA, Archbishop Elpidophoros (Lambriniadis), who endorsed Donald Trump as a presidential candidate. During a Trump campaign event in Milwaukee, Archbishop Elpidophoros took to the podium and offered a prayer for Donald Trump. What does this mean for the UOC?
Phanar and Biden
For many, Archbishop Elpidophoros's action was a sign of a shift in Phanar's policy towards the U.S. authorities. Not long ago, the same Archbishop Elpidophoros actively supported the current President of the United States, Joseph Biden. According to him, "Greek Americans have always been his (Biden's) most ardent supporters... I know that in the person of President Biden, our Church and Hellenism find a friend in the Oval Office."
Meanwhile, Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople spoke of his friendship with the U.S. President, stating that Joe Biden is "a good man and a great friend".
Naturally, Biden reciprocated. For example, he called Patriarch Bartholomew "Christ-like". He said that Phanar could turn to him for help on any issue. Most interestingly, Biden's words were not just courteous gestures towards Phanar; they had a solid foundation. Patriarch Bartholomew did seek help, and the State Department assisted, at least in sorting out Bartholomew's issues in Turkey.
And now, after so many years of fruitful cooperation, the Phanariots in the U.S. suddenly make a U-turn by supporting Biden's opponent in the upcoming election.
To many, this seems like a betrayal or, at the very least, an escape from a sinking ship. Moreover, considering that Biden and Trump have radically different views on many issues (abortion, LGBT support, migrant policies, and traditional values), analysts say we should expect a change in Phanariots' rhetoric on these issues.
For us, UOC believers, the main concern is whether the U.S. policy towards the persecution of the UOC by the Ukrainian authorities will make the tide turn in favor of the Church.
Phanar and Trump
We all know that Biden directly supported Dumenko and his structure, and possibly with his tacit approval, the Ukrainian authorities exerted pressure on the UOC.
On the other hand, the OCU was created during Trump's presidency, and it is unlikely that he was unaware of what was happening to our Church immediately after Dumenko received the Tomos from Patriarch Bartholomew.
Recently, however, Trump's supporters have increasingly stated that the situation in Ukraine's religious field is outrageous. One can recall the harsh statements of Tucker Carlson, whom Trump considered as a potential U.S. Vice President, and J.D. Vance, who became the candidate.
For example, Vance stated that the Ukrainian parliament wants to destroy the UOC, and this would be a disgrace: "Our disgrace that we did not see this coming. Our disgrace for inaction. Our disgrace for refusing to use the billions of dollars we send to Ukraine as leverage to ensure and guarantee religious freedom," Vance said quite recently.
What Do We Have?
On the one hand, we have long-standing relations between the State Department and Phanar. For example, after the founding of the Turkish Republic in 1923, Phanar faced numerous problems, which the United States helped to solve. During the Cold War, the U.S. considered the Patriarchate of Constantinople a potential ally in the fight against the USSR's influence in the Orthodox world.
In 2018, Patriarch Bartholomew granted the Tomos of autocephaly to the OCU, and the Trump administration expressed support for Dumenko's organization, which, from the State Department's perspective, was part of a broader strategy to counter "Russian influence" in Ukraine and Eastern Europe. It should also be noted that American diplomats in Ukraine and other countries advocated for the OCU under the guise of "religious freedom" and "the right of religious communities to self-governance". However, for some reason, these concepts did not apply to the UOC.
On the other hand, initially supporting the creation of the OCU as a means of countering Russian influence, after 2022, Trump's allies began to criticize the Ukrainian government's attitude towards the UOC.
So what should UOC believers expect?
Let's try to answer this question.
Predictions on the Fate of the UOC After a Possible Re-election of Trump
If Donald Trump wins the upcoming election, it is likely that U.S. policy on the Ukrainian church issue could undergo further changes. Considering Trump's history of unpredictable foreign policy decisions and his evolving stance on this issue, several scenarios are possible (listed in order of likelihood).
1. Increased U.S. pressure on Ukrainian authorities over church issues
A re-elected Trump administration might increase pressure on Ukraine to uphold the rights of the UOC. This pressure could include diplomatic efforts aimed at ensuring that the Ukrainian government refrain from actions that could be perceived as repressive towards the UOC. Especially recently, the silence over the persecution of the UOC has been broken not only by journalists and lawyers but also by the State Department, which reported on violations of the rights of UOC believers.
2. U.S. mediation in the Ukrainian "church issue"
Trump might attempt to find a "trade-off" between the OCU and the UOC, seeking either the unification of these structures or at least the easing of tensions between them. Such efforts could be seen by Trump's entourage as very promising, as they would bolster his image as a peacemaker and add to his "foreign policy achievements".
3. U.S. reevaluation of relations with Phanar
It is less likely that Trump will reevaluate U.S. relations with the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople. However, it might happen that, despite historical support for the Phanar, the Trump administration could take a more pragmatic stance, focusing on immediate geopolitical interests (e.g., strengthening ties with Russia) rather than longstanding alliances. It is important to understand that the U.S. always acts in favor of its strategic goals, meaning the most that might happen is a cooling of relations with the Phanar, but not their complete dissolution.
4. U.S. continuation of support for the OCU
The least likely scenario is that American top officials will continue their support for the OCU. Despite the criticism of the persecution of the UOC from his entourage, it is doubtful that Trump would continue to support the OCU as a counterbalance to "Russian influence" in Ukraine. The OCU today does not influence anything at all. This project has failed in our country, and it is unlikely that the State Department will make efforts to rehabilitate it. Therefore, Trump's coming to power is very much not in Dumenko's interests.
Conclusion
The relationship between the Phanar and the U.S. has been shaped by geopolitical considerations and complex interactions within the Orthodox world, on which the State Department built its policy. The creation of the OCU, and even more so, the behavior of its representatives in Ukraine, has shown that continuing to play on these relationships is an ungrateful and inherently losing game. This impression was reinforced by the subsequent repressions against the UOC, which indicated the futility of this approach and its political inexpediency.
We can assume that as the situation develops, the possible re-election of Donald Trump may lead to further changes in U.S. policy on the "Ukrainian church issue".
However, it is impossible to say with certainty what strategy Trump will choose at this moment. Most likely, this strategy will heavily depend on the entourage of the future president. In our opinion, given the trends and statements already made, we can talk about the Trump administration's tack to ease pressure on the UOC.
At the very least, we anticipate that the U.S. will do everything to give the religious processes occurring in our country at least the semblance of legality and democracy. How much easier this will make things for the believers and clergy of the UOC is hard to say. The State Department and the Phanar will undoubtedly continue to cooperate in one form or another. And here, the position of the Patriarchate of Constantinople is more important than Trump's stance, and any change in this position seems very uncertain.
What is clear is that the intersection of religious and geopolitical issues will continue to play a key role in the relationship between the Patriarchate of Constantinople and the U.S. It would be very beneficial if the Phanar seriously considered the fruits of its "work" in Ukraine. Perhaps then the Patriarchate of Constantinople would understand that the Tomos has brought nothing good to our people.
